文前言如何写结,写下文章的前言

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写以下文章的前言,简介及分析结论.

字数:至少1000字以上

语言:英语

截止时间:2016年6月3日

I.PerCapitaIneGap

Aentionedabove,datafromthePennWorldTableareusedincalculatingtheinegap.ThePennWorldTablecalculatestherealGDPpercapitaofvariouscountriesininternationaldollars(I$)using2005asthebaseyear.Accordingtothisanalysis,the1990percapitaineofChinaresemblesthe196ercapitaineofKoreamost.Therefore,therewasa27-yeargapintermsofpercapitaineasof1990.Thisinegaphasbeennarrowedeversince.Asof2007,therewasa21-yeargapbetweentheinelevelsofthetwocountries,asshowninTable1.Inestimatingandparinginelevelsacrosscountriesandyears,statisticalerrorcanariseduetoinaccurategrowthrateestimatesandpurchasingpowerdisparities.Therefore,itioreimportanttofindoutthegeneraltrendofestimationrathertotaketheestimatednumbersseriously.

<,Table1>,RealGDPpercapitaofChinaandKorea

(unit:I$,2005constantprices)

China*KoreaTimeGap(Years)19901,92419631,9262719953,07219703,0302520004,40019764,4362420056,48319836,5202220077,86819868,09321Note:*ChinaVersion2dataareused.Thisisbasedonrecentmodificationsoftheofficialgrowthrate.

Source:AlanHeston,RobertSummersandBettinaAten,PennWorldTableVersion6.3,CenterforInternationalComparisonsofProduction,IneandPricesattheUniversityofPennsylvania,August2016.(pwt.econ.upenn.edu/).

Inordertoverifytheaboveestimation,letusestimatetheinegapusingdatafromtheIMF.IMFpublishestimeseriesdataofGDPpercapitaatcurrentandconstantpricesaswellaspurchasingpowerparity(ppp)conversionrateofeachcountryfrom1980.Usingthesedatabase,wecanestimatetheinegapbetweenChinaandKorea.First,wecanconverttheChineseGDPpercapitaatcurrentpriceinyuanintoKoreanwonusingpppconversionratesoftwocountries.Forexample,theChineseGDPpercapitaatcurrentpricein2016was29,669yuan.Basedonpppconversionratesoftwocountries,29,669yuanin2016isasvaluableas5,998,777won.InordertoconvertitintorealGDPpercapita,weuseGDPdeflatorofKorea(baseyear等于2005).Then,5,998,777wonat2016currentpriceisasvaluableas5,360,166wonat2005constantprice.ItimpliesthattheChineseGDPpercapitain2016isasvaluableas5,360,166woninrealtermwhenweconsiderpppoftwocountries.Inthiscase,the2016percapitaGDPofChinaresemblesthe1985percapitaineofKoreamost.Therefore,wecanconcludethatthereexists25-yearstimegapintermofinelevelbetweentwocountriesasof2016.Whenweapplythesamemethod,wecanalsofindthatthe2007percapitaGDPofChinaresemblesthe1981percapitaineofKoreamost.Itimpliesthattherewas26-yeartimegapasof2007,whichisslightlydifferentfromtheresultsofTable1.EventhoughtheestimationoftimegapintermsofinelevelisdifferentfromTable1,wecouldstillfindthatChinahasnarroweditsinegapwithKoreabetween2007and2016.

Anotherwaytoverifytheinegapistopareproxyvariablesthatreflectinelevel.Onesuchvariablewouldbetheenrollmentrateatthetertiaryschool.AsbothKoreaandChinahebeeneagertoincreasetheenrollmentrateatthehighereducationastheirinelevelincreases,therewouldbeacloserelationshipbetweeninelevelandtheenrollmentrateatthetertiaryschool.AccordingtoWorldBank,the2016tertiaryschoolenrollmentrateofChinawas24.5%,whichwasclosetothe1983tertiaryschoolenrollmentrateofKorea.Therefore,wecanalsoconcludethatthereexists26-yeartimegapbetweentwocountries,whichcoincideswiththeaboveestimation.

AnotherproxyvariablecanbetheratioofagriculturetoGDPintermsofvalue-added.Asineincreasesandindustrializationproceeds,thisratiowouldfallbothinKoreaandChina.AccordingtotheWorldBank,the2016agriculturevalue-added/GDPratioinChinawas10.3%,whichwasclosetothe1989ratioofKorea.

Fromtheaboveestimations,wecanconcludethatasof2016and2016,thereexistsroughly20-to25-yeartimegapintermsofinebetweenKoreaandChina.

AsshowninTable1,ChinahasnarrowedtheinegapwithKoreagraduallybutcontinuouslysince1990.ConsideringthefactthattheannualeragegrowthrateofKoreahasslowedsignificantlysincethemid-1990s,therateatwhichChinaclosesthisgapintermsofpercapitainewithKoreaislikelytoaccelerateinthenearfuture.

OneimportantfeatureoftheChineseeconomyintermsofineisthatthereexistsconsiderableregionaldisparities.Forexample,Fleisher,Li,andZhao(2016)andPanandHe(2016)analyzedregionalinequalityintermsofhumancapitalandsocialcapital.Hence,itwouldbepossiblethatpercapitainelevelsinsomeregionsofChinalagfarbehindtheeragelevelofKorea,whenresidentsinsomeChinesecitieswouldbealmostaswealthyastheerageKorean.Forexample,theGRP(grossregionalproduct)percapitaofBeijingin2007was57,277yuanwhenthenationwideGDPpercapitawas18,934yuan.

Ontheotherhand,theGRPpercapitaofGuizhouwaerely3,762yuan,meaningthatBeijingincaomeisroughly3timeshigherthanthenationaleragelevelandthatGuizhouineierely1/5ofthenationaleragelevel.AstherealGDPpercapitaofChinain2007wasI$7,868accordingtoTable1,thisimpliesthatBeijingrealinepernccapitawasI$23,803asof2007,whenGuizhourealinepercapitawasI$3,029.Inthiscase,wecansaythatBeijingrealpercapitainewasatparwithKoreaasof2007,whenGuizhourealpercapitainewasclosetotherealpercapitairneofKoreainthe1970s.Table2showseachregionrealinepercapitainI$andshowstheyearswhenKoreainelevelmatcheseachregioninelevel.

WhenwecalculatetheinegapbetweenBeijingandKoreausingtheIMFdatabase,wecanfindoutthat2007percapitaGRPofBeijingresemblesthe1995percapitaGDPofKoreamost.Consideringthefactthat2007percapitaGDPofChinaresembledthe1981percapitaGDPofKoreamost,itimpliesthatinegapbetweenBeijingandKoreaiuchallerthantheinegapbetweenChinaandKorea.

Table2showsthatthereiswiderangeofinelevelsinvariousregionsinChina.Generallyspeaking,largecitieslikeBeijing,Tianjin,andShanghaiherealpercapitainelevelsthatareclosetothoseofKoreainthe2000s.Provincesinthecoastalarea,suchasShandong,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,andGuangdong,heinelevelssimilartothoseofKoreainthe1990s.ThewesterninlandareasofChina,whicharerelativelyunderdeveloped,heinelevelssimilartothoseofKoreainthe1970s.

<,Table2>,RealGRPPerCapitaofEachRegion(2007)

andMatchingYearsofKorea

RegionsRealGRPpercapita(I$)MatchingYearsRegionsRealGRPpercapita(I$)MatchingYearsBeijing23,8032007Hubei6,9641984Tianjin18,8232000Hunan6,0161982Hebei8,2061986Guangdong13,6711992Shanxi7,0191984Guangxi5,1911977InnerMongolia10,5251989Hainan6,0161982Liaoning10,6591989Chongqing6,3511983Jilin8,5261987Sichuan5,3721978Heilongjiang7,6781985Guizhou3,0291970Shanghai27,2622007Yunnan4,3651976Jiangsu14,0291993Tibet5,0071977Zhejiang15,4241994Shaanxi6,0601982Anhui5,0021977Gansu4,2911975Fujian10,8381989Qinghai5,8991982Jiangxi5,2331978Ningxia6,0581982Shandong11,5201990Xinjiang6,9891984Henan6,6651983Source:Calculatedbyauthorsusingdatafrompwt.econ.upenn.edu/andChinaStatisticalYearbook2016(ChinaStatisticsPress,Beijing,China).

II.ExportStructureGap

Theconcernofthispaper,however,isnotonlytomeasuretheinegapbutalsotoestimatethestructuraltimegapbetweentwocountries.AccordingtotheflyinggeesehypothesisofAkamatsu(1962),thereexistsacertainhierarchicalorderamongEastAsianeconomies.Japanhasplayedaleadingroleinthishierarchy.ThesecondtierofthishierarchyconsistsofNIEs,andthethirdtierconsistsoftheASEANcountries.Recently,thesoutheastcoastalareaofChinahaormedthefourthtier.Theparativeadvantageofexportsshiftedfromonegroupofcountriestothenextgroupofcountriesastheirindustrialstructuresevolvedovertime.Morespecifically,asthelaborcostofleadingcountriesincreasesandastechnologicaltranerfromleadingcountriestofollowingcountriestakesplace,theparativeadvantageofexportshaschangedovertime.Followingthishypothesis,wecanassumethattherewillbeacertaintimegapintermsoftheexportstructureamongEastAsiancountries.Inparticular,itistheconcernofthispapertodeterminethistimegapbetweenKoreaandChina.

1.StructuralGapBasedonRankCorrelation

Letuirstmeasurethestructuraltimegapbasedontheexportstructure.Aostexportsaremanufacturedbythemanufacturingsectorinbothcountries,thispaperfocusesonexportdatafromthemanufacturingsectoronly.Inparticular,thispaperuses150exportmoditiesclassifiedbytheSITC(Rev2)3-digitdataoftheUN.Tomeasuretheexportstructuregap,itisnecessarytofindtheyearKoreaexportstructureresemblestheexportstructuhreof2016Chinamost.ThispaperemploysSpearmanrankcorrelationmeasure(Rs)tofindthis.First,weneedtoassignaranktoeachmodityaccordingtoitsexportvolumeineachcountry.Then,usingthefollowingequation,wecancalculateRsbetweehnthe2016ChineseexportdataandtheKoreanexportdataofvariousyears.

(Here,isthedifferenceinthetwocountriesranksofmodityi,andnisthetotalnumberofmodities.)

Bydefinition,Rswillapproachasthetwocountriesexportstructuresbegintoresembleeachotherandwillapproachotherwise.WhentheRsegapvaluesbetweenthe2016ChineseexportdataandtheKoreanexportdataofvariousyearsarecalculated,Figure1showstheresult.

<,Figure1>,RsbetweenChina(2016)andKorea(variousyears)

Source:UNComtrade(trade.un./).

AsdepictedinFigure1,RsbetweenChina(2016)andKorea(variousyears)peakedin1988withaRsvaluecloseto0.75.Thisimpliesthatthe2016Chineseexportstructureresemblesthe1988Koreanexportstructuremost.In1988,Koreaexportstructurecanbecharacterizedasamixtureoflabor-intensiveproductssuchaootwear,fabrics,andapparel,andcapital-intensiveproductssuchaotorvehiclesandships.Moreover,someIT(informationtechnology)relatedmoditiesbegantoemergeasthemajorexportmoditiesstartinginthemid-1980s.JustlikeKoreain1988,Chinaasoftodayhasanexportstructurewhosemajorponentsareamixtureoflabor-intensiveproducts,capital-intensiveproducts,andIT-relatedproducts.Inthisregard,wecansaythatChinaasof2016hasatimegapof21yearswithKoreaintermsoftheexportstructureofthetwocountries.However,thisdoesnotimplythatChinaislaggingbehindKoreaby21years.Asitisstatedabove,ChinahasnarroweditsinegapwithKoreabyrelyingonrapidgrowthofexport.Also,astheChineseexportstructureisupgradedinthefuture,itispossiblethatthistimegapcanbenarrowedfast.Todeterminehowthistimegaphaschangedovertime,asimilaranalysiswascarriedoutbetweenselectedyearorChinaandvariousyearorKorea.ThisresultissummarizedinTable3.

<,Table3>,TheYearwhenRsbetweenChina(selectedyears)andKoreapeaked

SelectedYear

forChinaYearwhenRSPeakedTimeGapRSValue20161988210.751520041988160.785520001988120.77181995198870.75801990198280.6286Note:CalculationsofRsbetweenChina(1990,1995,2000,and2004)andKoreaarecitedfromTable3ofLeeandKim(inKorean,2005).

Table3showssomewhatpuzzlingbutinterestingfinding.Since1995,theChineseexportstructuresresemblethe1988exportstructureofKoreamost.ThisimpliesthattheChineseexportstructuredidnotchangesubstantiallybetween1995and2016.Insteadofupgradingitsexportstructure,wecansaythatChinahasexpandeditsexportvolumemassivelyduringtheperiodinquestion.Therefore,wecansaythatChinahasachievedrapidgrowthbyincreasingitsexportvolumemassivelywithoutchangingitsexistingexportstructuresubstantially.Aentionedabove,itisstilldominatedbyamixtureoflabor-intensiveandcapital-intensivemodities.Ontheotherhand,theKoreanexportstructurehaschangedsubstantiallysincetheearly1990s.First,from1994,labor-intensiveproductssuchaootwear,apparel,andouterweardisappearedfromthetop10exportmoditiesofKorea.Additionally,therelativeimportanceofIT-relatedmoditiesstartedtoincreaseinthemid-1990s.Intermediateinputssuchaotorvehiclepartsandmachineshebeemajorexportitemssincetheearly2000s.Toclarifythispoint,thetop10exportmoditiesofKoreaandChinainselectedyearsaresummarizedinTable4.

Asexpected,thetop10exportmoditiesofChinafrom1995to2016showaconsiderableamountofoverlapwiththoseof1988Korea.Forexample,6moditiesoutofthetop10exportmoditiesofChinain2016areinthetop10exportmoditylistofKoreain1988.Ontheotherhand,whenthe1988Koreaexportstructureisparedtothe2016exportstructureofKorea,wecanfindnoticeabledifferences.Only4emoditiesoverlapbetweenthe1988and2016lists.Inparticular,chemicalproductssuchaspolymerization&,copolymerizationproductsandhydrocarbonswereamongthetop10exportmoditiesin2016.Thesechemicalproductswerenotevenincludedamongthetop30exportmoditiesin1988.Furthermore,amongthetop10exportmoditiesofKoreain2016aremotorvehiclepartsandmachineparts,whichwerealsonotlistedwithinthetop20exportmoditiesin1988.Generallyspeaking,Koreaexportsthructurein1988wasdominatedbyeitherlabor-intensiveproduct(suchaootwearandapparel)orfinal-assemblyproducts(suchasautomobileandputers).Inordertoproducetheseassembledproducts,Koreahadtoimportcorepartromadvancedcountries.However,by2016,Koreahadsuccesullyupgradeditsexportstructurebyexportingsophisticatedchemicalproductsandcoreintermediateinputs.ThefactthatChinaexportstructureoftodaystillresemblestheexportstructureofKoreainthelatei1980simpliesthattheChineseexportisstilldominatedbylabor-intensiveproductsandfinal-assemblyproducts.Therefore,wecanconcludethatChinahasexpandeditsexportvolumemassivelyoverthelastfewdecadeswithoutchangingitsexportstructuresubstantially.ThiactcanbeparedtotheKoreanexportindustryofthe1970sand1980s.AlthoughKoreahadinvestedconsiderablyintheheyandchemicalindustrieromthemid-1970s,Koreaexportstructurebythemid-1980swasstilldominatedebylabor-intensiveindustries.Forexample,asof1983,fiveoutofthetop10exportitemsinKoreawerelabor-intensiveproducts.

<,Table4>,Top10ExportCommoditiesofKoreaandChina

RanksKorea(1988)China(1995)China(2000)China(2016)Korea(2016)1Thermionic,microcircuits,transistors,valves,etc.Women,girls,infantsouterwear,textile,notknittedorcrochetedTelemunicationequipment,nes,partsandaccessories,nesAutomaticdataprocessingmachinesandunitsthereofTelemunicationequipment,nes,partsandaccessories,nes2FootwearFootwearAutomaticdataprocessingmachinesandunitsthereofTelemunicationequipment,nes,partsandaccessories,nesShips,boatsandfloatingstructuresassengermotorvehicles(excludingbuses)Babycarriages,toys,gamesandsportinggoodsBabycarriages,toys,gamesandsportinggoodsThermionic,microcircuits,transistors,valves,etc.Passengermotorvehicles(excludingbuses)4Fabrics,woven,ofman-madefibers(notnarroworspecialfabrics)Men'sandboys'outerwear,textilefabricsnotknittedorcrochetedFootwearOuterwearknittedorcrocheted,notelasticnorrubberizedThermionic,microcircuits,transistors,valves,etc5Articlesofapparel,clothingaccessories,non-textile,headgearTelemunicationequipment,nes,partsandaccessories,nesOuterwearknittedorcrocheted,notelasticnorrubberizedParts,nesofandaccessorieormachinesofheadings751or752Opticalinstrumentsandapparatus6Outerwearknittedorcrocheted,notelasticnorrubberizedOuterwearknittedorcrocheted,notelasticnorrubberizedWomen,girls,infantsouterwear,textile,notknittedorcrochetedFurnitureandpartsthereofMotorvehiclepartsandaccessories,nes7AutomaticdataprocessingmachinesandunitsthereofCottonfabrics,woven(notincludingnarroworspecialfabrics)Men'sandboys'outerwear,textilefabricsnotknittedorcrochetedShips,boatsandfloatingstructuresPolymerizationandcopolymerizationproducts8Gramophones,dictatingmachinesandothersoundrecordersArticlesofapparel,clothingaccessories,non-textile,headgearParts,nesofandaccessorieormachinesofheadings751or752Babycarriages,toys,gamesandsportinggoodsUniversals,plates,andsheets,ofironorsteel9Ships,boatsandfloatingstructuresUnder-garments,knittedorcrochetedElectricalmachineryandapparatus,nesElectricalmachineryandapparatus,nesHydrocarbons,nes,andderivatives10Telemunicationequipment,nes,partsandaccessories,nesTrelgoods,handbagsetc,ofleather,plastics,textile,othersThermionic,microcircuits,transistors,valves,etcFootwearParts,nesofandaccessorieormachinesofheadings751or752Source:UNComtrade(trade.un./).

Toexaminetherobustnessofthisresult,theauthorsusedtwodifferentwaystomeasurethetimegapintermsoftheexportstructurebetweenChinaandKorea.First,onlythetop50exportmoditiesofChinaasof2016wereselected,andtherankcorrelationsbetweentheexportstructuresof2016ChinaandvariousyearsofKoreaweremeasured.Weattemptedthisbecauseweconsideredthepossibilitythatdiscrepanciesinranksamongminorexportitemscandistorttheoverallrankcorrelation.However,evenwhenwecalculatedrankcorrelationswithonlythetop50exportitems,theresultsdidnotdiffer.Thatistosay,theexportstructureof2016Chinaresembledtheexportstructureof1988Koreamost.

Anotherwaytocalculatetherankcorrelationistouseexportdatathatiorebroadlycategorizedthanthepreviousdataset.Todothis,letusnowusetheSITC2-digitdatainsteadoftheSITC3digitdata.AccordingtotheSITC2-digitdata,wehe35moditiesinsteadof150modities.Thisexaminationisnecessarybecauseadifferentresultmayariseparedtopreviouscalculations.However,asdepictedinFigure2,the2016Chineseexportstructurestillresemblesthe1989Koreanexportstructuremost.Infact,thedegreeofresemblanceincreasedwithanRsvalueof0.83whentheSITC2-digitdatawereused.Therefore,wecanstillconcludethattheChineseexportstructuresbetween1995and2016resembletheexportstructureofKoreainthelate1980ost.

Whenwerelatethiindingwiththeinegapanalysis,thefollowingconclusioncanbeinferred.Duringthepastfewdecades,ChinahasnarrowedtheinegapwithKoreabyrelyingonrapidexport-ledgrowth.However,itsexportgrowthhasbeenbasedonincreasingitsvolume,notonupgradingitsexportstructure.However,basedontheexperiencesofKorea,Chinawillsoonexperiencethestructuralchangesthatewithanupgradetoitsexportstructure.AsshowninTable3,thedegreeofsimilaritybetweenChinaandKoreaisbeingthinner.Inthiscase,ChinawillcatchupwithKoreanotonlyintermsofinebutalsointermsofitsexportstructure.Therefore,KoreawillsoonfacetougherpetitionfromChineseexportindustries.

ToexaminewhetherornottheChinesetradestructureisbeingmorepetitivewithKorea,letusnowmeasurethetradeplementaryindexandexportsimilarityindexbetweenthesetwocountries.

<,Figure2>,RsbetweenChina(2016)andKorea(variousyears)

-CalculatedwiththeSITC2-DigitData

Source:UNComtrade(trade.un./).

2.ComplementaryandSimilarityIndexbetweenKoreaandChina

NowletusexaminehowplementarythetradestructuresarebetweenKoreaandChina.Itisawell-knownfactthatthebilateraltradebalancebetweenthesetwocountrieshasskewedtowardKoreaoverthelastcoupleofdecades.SinceKoreaestablisheddiplomaticrelationswithChinain1992,KoreahasalwaysenjoyedatradesurpluswithChina.Asof2016,Koreahashadatradesurplusofapproximately$32billionwithChina.

OneofthemainreasonsbehindthischronictradeimbalanceisthatChinatradestructureisplementarytoKoreatradestructure.Thatistosay,ChinaimportstructureishighlyplementarytoKoreaexportstructximaure,whereasthereverseisnottrue.ThishypothesisisconfirmedbyZheng&,Lin(2016)aswell.Zheng&,Lin(2016)analyzedthereasonsbehindthetradeimbalancebetweenChinaandKoreaandconcludedthatadifferentdevelopmentstageandtradestructurehasledtothisoute.Therefore,itwouldbeverynaturalforKoreatoexportalargervolumeofitsproductstotheChinesemarketthanforChinatoexporttoKorea.Toverifythispoint,letusanalyzetheplementarynaturebetweenthetwocountriesusingtheTCI(tradeplementaryindex)metric.

(Here,istheproportionvectorofKoreaexportstructure,andmistheproportionvectorofChinaimportstructure.Also,limpliesthesquaredvalueofX.)

Bydefinition,whenChinaimportstructurevectorisidenticaltoKoreaexportstructurevector,TCIwillhealueofWhenwecalculateTCIusingtheSITC3-digitdataoftradeinthemanufacturingsectorbebalantweenKoreaandChina,thefollowingfigureillustratestheresult.

AsshowninFigure3,theTCIbetweentheChineseimportstructureandtheKoreanexportstructureincreaseduntil2000andthenpeakedinthatyear,withaTCIofover0.80.Thiactisreflectedinthefollowingtableaswell.AsshowninTable5,mostofthemainimportmoditiesofChinaoverlapwiththemainexportmoditiesofKoreaasof2000.

<,Figure3>,TCIbetweenKoreanExportsandChineseImports,1993-2016.

Source:UNComtrade(trade.un./).

ThisresultscoincidewithKimandLang(2016),Park(2016),ParkandKim(2006,2016),andPark(2001).MostofthesepreviousliteraturesconcludethatChina'stradestructurewasplementarytothatofKoreauntilthemid-2000s.

However,aftertheTCIvaluepeakedin2000,itbegantodeclineintheensuingyears.ThisimpliesthatChinatradestructurehasbeemorepetitivewithKoreatradestructurefrom2000.Toverifythis,weneedtoexamineKohowpetitiveChinaexportstructureistothatofKorea.Todothis,weusetheESI(exportsimilarityindex)betweentheexportstructuresofthetwocountries.TheESImeasurewairstintroducedbyFingerandKreinin(1979).IthasbeenwidelyuseKdbyeconomistssincethen.

(Inthisequation,istheratioofmodityiexportoutofKoreatotalmanufactureexport.)

<,Table5>,MajorImportandExportCommoditiesofChinaandKorea(2000)

MajorImportCommoditiesofChinaurMajorExportCommoditiesofKorea1Electricmachinery,apparatusandappliances,nes,andparts,nes1Electricmachinery,apparatus

andappliances,nes,andparts,nes2Artificialresinsandplasticmaterials,

andcelluloseestersetc2Officemachinesandautomaticdataprocessingequipment3Textileyarn,fabrics,made-uparticles,nes,andrelatedproducts3Roadvehicles4Telemunications,soundrecording

andreproducingequipment4Telemunications,soundrecording

andreproducingequipment5Machineryspecializedforparticularindustries5Textileyarn,fabrics,made-uparticles,nes,andrelatedproducts6Officemachinesandautomaticdataprocessingequipment6Othertransportequipment7Ironandsteel7Ironandsteel8Organicchemicals8Artificialresinsandplasticmaterials,

文前言如何写结,写下文章的前言参考属性评定
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andcelluloseestersetc9Generalindustrialmachinery

andequipment,nes,andpartsof,nes9Articlesofapparelandclothingaccessories10Non-ferrouetals10Organicchemicals11Powergeneratingmachineryandequipment11Generalindustrialmachineryandequipment,nes,andpartsof,nes12Professional,scientific,controllinginstruments,apparatus,nes12Miscellaneouanufacturedarticles,nes1aper,paperboard,andarticlesofpulp,ofpaperorofpaperboard13Machineryspecializedforparticularindustries14Miscellaneouanufacturedarticles,nes14Manufacturesofmetals,nes15Roadvehicles15Non-ferrouetalsNote:CommoditiesarebasedonSITC2-digitdata(Rev.2).

Source:UNComtrade(trade.un./).

Bydefinition,theESIbetweentwocountrieswillbeclosetoasthetwocountriesexportstructureorecloselyresembleeachother.ThereforeKo,astheESIapproacheswecaninterpretthatthetwocountriesexportstructuresbeemorepetitive.TheresultofthisanalysisisdepictedinFigure4.

<,Figure4>,ESIbetweenKoreaandChina,1993-2016.

re

Source:UNComtrade(trade.un./).

Assuspected,theESIbetweenKoreaandChinabegantoincreasecirca2000.ThisresultcoincideswithKim&,Bark(2007),Zhang(2006),andShang(2016).Also,existingliteraturessuchasKim(2016),Rhee(1999),Lim(2016),andChungandKim(2016)concludethatChinahasbeemorepetitivetoKoreainrecentyears.Thus,wecansaythatChinaimportstructurebecameincreasinglyplementarytotheexportstructureofKoreauntil2000.However,from2000,9thetradestructuresofthetwocountrieshebeemorepetitiveratherthanplementarytoeachother.Basedonthisobservation,weconcludethatChinawillstarttonarrowitstradestructuralgapwithKoreainthenearfuture.


Fromtheaboveobservation,wecaninferthattheChinesetradestructurehasbeemoresimilartotheKoreantradestructureovertime.Toexaminethis,wehecalculatedtheTC(tradepetitiveindex)ofeachcountrymanufacturingindustryandparedthesetwometricswitheachother.TCmeasureissimilartotheRCA(revealedparativeadvantage)measureasitmeasurestherelativepetitivenessofacertainindustryacrossindustries.TheequationforTCmeasureisthefollowing:

(Here,andarecorrespondinglytheexportandimportvalueofindustryj)

Bydefinition,theTCindexrangerom-1to1.ATCindexthatisgreaterthan0indicatesthattheindustryisrelativelypetitiveintermsofinternationaltrade.AccordingtoWang(2016),anindustryhasverystrongpetitivenessiftheTCindexisgreaterthan0.8andhasstrongpetitivenessiftheTCindexisgreaterthan0.5andallerthan0.8.AnindustryhaslowpetitivenessiftheTCindexisbetween0and0.5anditdoesnotheanypetitivenessiftheTCindexisbetween-0.5and0.AnindustryisinferiorintermsofpetitivenessifitsTCindexisbetween-0.8and-0.5andhasveryinferiorpetitivenessiftheTCindexisallerthan-0.8.

WecalculatedtheTCindiceorthemanufacturingindustriesofKoreaandChinaovertime.TheseresultsaresummarizedinTable6.ThedataforthiscalculationwereobtainedfromtheWTO.

<,Table6>,ManufacturingIndustryTradeCompetitiveIndices

YearKoreaChina19900.160.0219950.120.0920000.220.1320050.240.1720160.270.25Source:WorldTradeOrganization(wto.).

TheabovetableillustratesthatthetradepetitivenessofKoreaandChinaheimprovedovertime.Inparticular,therapidimprovementoftheChineseTCindexshowsthatChinahasnarrowedthegapwithKoreainrecentyears.Toexplorethispointfurther,wecalculatedtheTCindicesofthesetwocountriesacrosainmanufacturingindustries.TheseresultsaresummarizedinTable7.

<,Table7>,TradeCompetitiveIndicesoftheMainManufacturing

IndustriesYearKoreaChinaIronandsteel19900.05-0.381995-0.09-0.1420000.11-0.382005-0.02-0.1520160.00-0.06Chemicals1990-0.49-0.281995-0.19-0.3120000.01-0.4320050.06-0.3720160.09-0.29Machineryand

transportequipment19900.03-0.3319950.14-0.2520000.26-0.0520050.360.1020160.360.18Officeand

Teleequipment19900.30-0.1319950.340.0120000.27-0.0120050.380.1720160.310.24Textilesandclothing19900.740.5219950.550.5220000.580.5820050.340.7420160.210.82Source:WorldTradeOrganization(wto.).

ThetableaboveshowsthatthetradepetitivenessofKoreaandChinaheimprovedtheirtradepetitivenessinalmosteverymanufacturingindustryexceptfortextiles&,clothingindustryforKoreaandthechemicalindustryforChina.ThetablealsoshowsthatChinahasnarrowedtheTCgapwithKoreainmostofthemanufacturingindustries.Inparticular,ChinahasovertakenKoreainthetextiles&,clothingindustry.Thiindingisconsistentwiththepreviousanalysis,whichconcludesthatChinatradestructurehasbeemorepetitivewithKoreainrecentyears.

or